Samir Amin on Egypt

Sinalungguhitan ng Ehiptiyanong ekonomista na si Samir Amin sa kanyang maiksing sanaysay—Movements in Egypt: The US Realigns (MRZine, Feb 3, 2011)—ang kahalagahan ng Ehipto sa global na disenyo ng Amerika (tingnan dito ang isang analisis mula sa Peterson Institute for International Economics: Worrisome Economic Consequences from the Unrest in Egypt) at gumawa ito ng pinaka-probableng senaryo kasunod nitong mga pag-aalsang pulitikal sa rehiyon (dito, para sa pinakahuling balita; at dito ang naunang post para sa ilang akda-sanggunian tungkol sa Arabong mundo):  

Egypt is a cornerstone in the US plan of control of the planet.  Washington will not tolerate any attempt of Egypt to move out of its total submission, also required by Israel in order to pursue its colonisation of what remains from Palestine.  This is the exclusive target of Washington in its ‘involvement’ in the organisation of a ‘soft transition’.  In that respect the US may consider that Hosni Mubarak should resign.  The newly appointed vice-president, Omar Soliman, head of army intelligence, would be in charge.  The army was careful not to associate with the repression, thus protecting its image.

Mohamed El Baradei comes in at that point.  He is still more known outside than in Egypt, but could correct that quickly.  He is a ‘liberal’, having no concept of the management of the economy other than the ongoing, and cannot understand that this is precisely at the origin of the social devastation.  He is a democrat in the sense that he wants ‘true elections’ and the respect of law (stop arrests and torture), but nothing more.

It is not impossible that he would be a partner in the transition.  Yet the army and the country’s intelligence will not abandon their dominant position in the ruling of the society.  Will El Baradei accept it?

Kung magkakaroon ng eleksiyon, magiging dominanteng pwersa ang Muslim Brotherhood na, ayon kay Amin, ay kabahagi talaga ng mga komprador na naghaharing-uri:

In case of ‘success’ and ‘elections’, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) will become the major parliamentary force.  The US welcomes this and has qualified the MB as ‘moderate’, that is, docile and accepting the submission to the US strategy, leaving Israel free to continue its occupation of Palestine.  The MB is also fully in favour of the ongoing ‘market’ system, totally externally dependent.  They are also, in fact, partners in the ‘compradore’ ruling class.  They took a position against the working-class strikes and the peasants’ struggles to keep their ownership of land.

The US plan for Egypt is very similar to the Pakistani model, a combination of ‘political Islam’ and army intelligence.  The MB could compensate their alignment on such a policy by precisely being ‘not moderate’ in their behaviour towards the Copts.  Can such a system be delivered a certificate of ‘democracy’?

Binigyang-diin ni Amin ang komposisyong sosyal ng kasalukuyang pagkilos-pulitikal. Sa kalakhang bahagi, nanggagaling ito sa mga edukadong pang-gitnang-uri at mga nakapagtapos-ngunit-walang-trabahong mga kabataang tagasiyudad. Ang sitwasyong ito ay magtatakda ng limitasyon sa maaaring magaganap na pagbabago—’maliban lamang kung papasok ang papel ng mga magsasaka at manggagawa’:

The movement is that of urban youth, particularly holders of diplomas with no jobs, and supported by segments of the educated middle classes and democrats.  The new regime could perhaps make some concessions—enlarge the recruitment in the state apparatus, for example—but hardly more.

Of course things could change if the working-class and peasants’ movement moves in.  But this does not seem to be on the agenda.  As long as the economic system is managed in accordance with the rules of the ‘globalisation game’, none of the problems which resulted in the protest movement can really be solved.

Narito ang pinakahuling analisis ni Amin sa pandaigdigang kalagayan at ang tunguhin ng Marxismo:  The Trajectory of Historical Capitalism and Marxism’s Tricontinental Vocation (pdf mula sa: Monthly Review, Vol. 62, No. 9, Feb 2011).

Bilang bahagi ng tatawagin ni Amin na ‘kakasimula pa lang na pangalawang alon ng mapagpalayang pagkilos ng mga bansa sa Timog’ (ang unang alon, sa kanyang peryodisasyon ay mula 1917-1980), mahalagang tanong sa mga kasalukuyang kilos-pulitikal para kay Amin ang: probabilidad na lilikha ba ito o hindi ng paninindigang puputol sa pagkakatali ng kanilang mga bansa sa mga sentro ng imperyalismo: 

The second wave of independent initiatives of the countries of the South has begun. The “emerging” countries and others, like their peoples, are fighting the ways in which the collective imperialism of the Triad tries to perpetuate its domination. [...] Will it be more effective? Can it go further than the preceding one? [...]

In 2008 the second long crisis of capitalism moved into a new phase. Violent international conflicts have already begun and are visible: will they challenge the domination of the generalized monopolies, based on anti-imperialist positions? How do they relate to the social struggles of the victims of the austerity policies pursued by the dominant classes in response to the crisis? In other words, will the peoples employ a strategy of extricating themselves from a capitalism in crisis, instead of the strategy to extricate the system from its crisis, as pursued by the powers that be? 

Narito ang dalawa sa magagaling na akda ni Samir Amin sa penomenong imperyalismo: (1) 2008: The World We Wish To See: Revolutionary Objectives in the Twenty-First Century (djvu file/3.54mb), (2) 2004: The Liberal Virus and the Americanization of the World (New York: Monthly Review).

Interesante ring tingnan itong isang luma niyang sanaysay: The Arab Nation: Some Conclusions and Problems, MERIP Reports, No. 68. (June 1978). At ang kanyang pananaw sa tinatawag na political Islam: Political Islam in the service of imperialism (Monthly Review 2007).